It's not just about smaller models. I recently bought a Macbook M4 Max with 128GB RAM. You can run surprisingly large models locally with unified memory (albeit somewhat slowly). And now AMD has brought that capability to the X86 world with Strix. But I agree that how long Google, Meta, Alibaba, etc. will continue to release open weight models is a big question. It's obviously just a catch-up strategy aimed at the moats of OpenAI and Anthropic, once they catch up the incentive disappears.