Exactly. China has held this position for a long time. Chip plant manufacturing is a recent development. China will eventually catch up with their own manufacturing in a decade or so. They don't care about the immediate short-term - they think in decades.
Not a position they held until after ROC went to Taiwan. Then they changed their tune. Remember. PRC advocated for Taiwan independence and considered Taiwan an independent nation until around 1940s.
Taiwan today has exactly the same territorial claims as China does -- in fact, Taiwan's are more expansive, since they use the eleven-dash line instead of the nine-dash line. The difference is that Taiwan has little to no ability to project force.
(My comment should not be read as an endorsement of the CCP's willingness to force Taiwan into a reunification.)
While that is true. The people of Taiwan and the government don’t care to make claims on China. The island literally just wants to live their life. But if they tried to change their constitution and remove any claim it would be seen as an “attempt” at independence and cause China to throw a hissy fit.
Pointing this out always looks like endorsement of the CPC as it’s always a point that is pointed out as justification to claim Taiwan is part of China.
Just to be 100% clear: I think the issue of Taiwanese independence should be fully determined by Taiwanese voters in a free and fair referendum without foreign interference -- not from the US, not from China, and not from anyone else.
My previous comment was meant to provide some context. It was not an endorsement of China's stance.
Even if the desire to absorb Taiwan is ideological, they would certainly also understand the severe practical implications of losing access to their chip production.
Chinese companies seem to not have much trouble getting a hold of advanced chips, despite the embargo. There is also very elastic demand for less advanced chips despite China's efforts towards autonomy.
Exactly. Some comments here seem to imply that it's somehow good (or at least not bad) for Taiwan's national security to transfer technology to the US because Taiwan can now more credibly threaten to destroy their fabs, completely missing the point that China wants to reunify with Taiwan with or without these fabs.
It's a complete misreading of the situation; the US is in fact actively undermining Taiwan's national security, both 1) by coercing Taiwan to transfer its technology and human capital and 2) by banning chip trade between Taiwan and China.
It's a complete misreading of the situation; the US is in fact actively undermining Taiwan's national security, both 1) by coercing Taiwan to transfer its technology and human capital and 2) by banning chip trade between Taiwan and China.
Yep, but Taiwan was always a sacrificial lamb to contain China's economic rise. Unfortunately, I don't think a lot of Taiwanese people realize that. I feel sorry for them because in any military conflict, they will feel the most pain, by far.
I agree the imposed embargo re advanced chips between Taiwan and China undermines Taiwan's national security but this contradicts the earlier point that China doesn't care at all about chips.
My apologies, I should have been more clear. Here is my read of the situation:
China doesn't care in the sense that the threat of destroying fabs isn't going to factor into the Chinese leadership's desire to reunify. The issue of reunification is ideological; many Chinese people themselves view Taiwan as a break-away province.
China also does care, at least a little bit, in the sense that having access to Taiwanese chips will free up some economic resources within China itself that could be used in another strategically important industry instead. Allowing chip trade between Taiwan and China also encourages some Chinese economic dependence on Taiwan, though still not a decisive factor in whether China wants to reunify (by force if needed). But it buys Taiwan a bit more time, at least for now.
Banning chip trade between China and Taiwan weakens Taiwan's national security because it immediately removes even that smidgen of Chinese economic dependence on Taiwan (thus possibly accelerating Chinese plans for reunification), and it makes Taiwan much more dependent on the US, which has in recent weeks thoroughly proven itself to be an unreliable partner.
This was my first thought when I heard about this. If Taiwan ever looks like it's going to fall, I think that there's going to be a massive concerted effort to extract all the talent and production equipment over to America so that it's not in China's hands.
Sure, TSMC would want to do that to salvage what they can. I wonder if the Taiwanese government is as keen on that arrangement though; TSMC plants are their biggest bargaining chip, and Trump has upending the entire world order mere weeks into his term.
