This seems to essentially be saying that coincidences will happen and if you’re fooled by them, sometimes it’s not your fault - they are “justified.” But they may be caused by enemy action: who put that decoy cow there? I guess they even made it move a little?
How careful do you have to be to never be fooled? For most people, a non-zero error rate is acceptable. Their level of caution will be adjusted based on their previous error rate. (Seen in this sense, perfect knowledge in a philosophical sense is a quest for a zero error rate.)
In discussions of how to detect causality, one example is flipping a light switch to see if it makes the light go on and off. How many flips do you need in order to be sure it’s not coincidence?
How careful do you have to be to never be fooled? For most people, a non-zero error rate is acceptable. Their level of caution will be adjusted based on their previous error rate. (Seen in this sense, perfect knowledge in a philosophical sense is a quest for a zero error rate.)
In discussions of how to detect causality, one example is flipping a light switch to see if it makes the light go on and off. How many flips do you need in order to be sure it’s not coincidence?