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I'm quite certain Felix Salmon understands everything you mentioned, but apparently since he didn't dress the issue in the way you simplify it, it means he doesn't understand the situation. Maybe do a search on his blog for ratings and try glancing through some of the (hundreds) of posts he's written in the past few years before making your judgment?

Specifically, you're misinterpreting what is meant by "an excess of overcaution". Felix is referring to how investor demand being too cautious (i.e. only interested in or able to invest in AAA) lead to a scenario where all sorts of tricks were developed to get an AAA rating on securities [1].

1. http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/08/26/shrinking-b...



Maybe I misinterpreted the article too, because an "excess of overcaution" sounds a lot like blame shifting to me, in this case from the rating agencies onto the investors who believed the ratings. The argument implies that because investors were "overcautious", and only willing to buy AAA rated securities, the rating agencies were therefore compelled to rate things AAA they otherwise would/should not have. At any rate, it seems that rating agencies should be rating things accurately regardless of how cautious investors are.




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