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All of these products can potentially be commoditized. But their brand is strong.


Commoditization is never instantaneous. You start of highly competitive because the products are all immature. During this period people who can differentiate become market leaders. Companies without R&D staffs can't compete yet because by the time they copy last year's product, next years product is out.

After a while, usually decades, commodity producers take over the lions share of the market. The high end is captured by one or two of the market leaders. Being first to market helps you get there, but you still have to fight for that position.

Look at iPhone. It was the best and the cheapest smartphone for probably a decade. Now Apple only has what, 20% of the market? But they have all the profits. The other 80% goes to commodity manufacturers but they don't make any money.

Tesla hopes to be that for mobility and home energy. Even if they fail, they'll still make a huge amount of money in the ramp up, before the commodity manufacturers eat their lunch. They're the market leader right now, so the prize is theirs to lose.


There's a big difference between being the premium product when the range for them is $0-$1200, your margin is massive, and everyone on the planet needs one.

It's another when the range is $12,000-$100,000, margins are much more competitive with way more competent adversaries, all the while car ownership is changing drastically to rental/ride sharing for a great many people.

At that point, you don't necessarily care the car you hired that day is a Tesla or Ford, because you experience it for 20 minutes and are done. The buyer in this case is the fleet owner not an individual, which does not necessarily favor Tesla.

I don't think that you can compare Tesla's product to Apple's (not to mention Apple's software ecosystem permeates so many more aspects of one's life if you are a part of it, Tesla not so much)




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