I'm not sure about this. Or I should say I am sure this is wrong for me and I'm not sure about anyone else.

I do about 1/3 of my internet surfing on my iPhone, at least an hour or two a day and I rarely miss the Flash. In fact, I'd say I'm actually glad it's not there. Most of my major online annoyances are Flash powered.

Except perhaps for any high profile Apple device attached to the App Store (the case in question).

Almost every mainstream site has verified mobile Webkit compatibility and/or dedicated applications. The group of people who still need Flash in that scenario is small enough that leaving it out wouldn't likely have a measurable effect on adoption.

For a web product from a company that can't command as much market attention, shipping without Flash might well be a death knell. But Apple's different. The App Store is different.

I run click2flash, and I rarely click2flash. Caveats, I don't do casual games, and I don't watch a lot of videos off of different sites.

Yes it is, it's just not yet evenly distributed.

It really isn't. Mainstream sites still play video with Flash, and I doubt that is going to change in 2010. But, we'll see.

Most people (Youtube) use flash as a wrapper around h.264; the other codecs supported are pretty terrible.

So that would mean that the 'evenly distributed' future isn't here yet? Wouldn't that still make it the future? Oh wait my head asploded.

The point is sites are already using HTML video, websockets, canvas, etc etc etc.

The future is now for websites and browsers that support it.

The challenge comes when a business must make the majority of its revenue off those that haven't yet received the future. Still supporting IE6, aren't we?